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Tony Awards 2023: Who should/will win?

**Tony awards night update – actual winners are bolded**

Hello, theatre friends.

Every year the Tony Awards roll around, and every year no one wants to watch them with me. People watch the Oscars even if they’re not particularly interested in cinema because of the superstar appearances, but Broadway celebrities are only celebrities to theatre people. So, it’s a tough sell. This music video summarizes the plight of theatre fans (heads up, the video is not kid-friendly).

This year, I’m watching the show with morbid curiosity, because due to the writers’ strike, the show is completely unscripted. This means no Lin-Manuel Miranda opening number, no long witty banter, and lots of people – namely writers – have been asked by their unions to boycott the event. Obviously I want the show to go off without a hitch, but just like when I went to see a brilliantly terrible children’s production of Hair (you read that correctly), I don’t mind the chaos.

Many major critics put out Tony Award predictions/commentary, so, as your trusted theatre friend, I thought I’d summarize them for you, along with my thoughts. My “vote” is half-prediction, half desired outcome.

Before we dive into the predictions, let’s take a look at the shows leading the nomination count this year:

13 – Some Like it Hot

9 – & Juliet; New York, New York; Shucked

8 – Kimberly Akimbo; Sweeney Todd

6 – Ain’t No Mo’; A Doll’s House; Into the Woods; Leopoldstadt; Parade

5 – Cost of Living; Fat Ham; Camelot; Life of Pi

4 – Prima Facie

3 – A Christmas Carol; Good Night, Oscar; KPOP; Topdog/Underdog

2 – Death of a Salesman; The Piano Lesson; Between Riverside and Crazy; The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window

1 – Almost Famous; Ohio State Murders; Summer, 1976

Winning Tony Awards can really help boost ticket sales, but many of the shows nominated have already closed (whomp whomp). Some shows were only open for a short amount of time – e.g. KPOP closed after 17 regular performances; Ain’t No Mo’ closed after 28. With such a short timeframe, perhaps some Tony voters were not able to see these shows, which is why it’s particularly impressive that Ain’t No Mo’ was nominated for 6 shows.

There were a few snubs (e.g. the PR dumpster fire that was Bad Cinderella, Life of Pi’s Olivier Award winning lead actor Hiran Abeysekera…), but overall the noms are pretty comprehensive.

Now, let’s get into the predictions. Let me know in the comments what you think!

The Big Ones – Best Musical, Best Play, & Best Revivals

Best Musical

NYTimes
Jesse Green
TheaterManiaYahoo
Robert Hofler
Lori
& Juliet
Kimberly AkimboXX
New York, New York
Shucked
Some Like it HotXX
Lori commentary: & Juliet is a jukebox musical, which is fun but not winner-worthy to me. I’ve heard New York, New York is boring. Kimberly Akimbo is heavily favoured to win, but I went with Some Like it Hot because I want it to win.

Best Play

NYTimes
Jesse Green
TheaterManiaYahoo
Robert Hofler
Lori
Ain’t No Mo’
Between Riverside and Crazy
Cost of Living
Fam Ham
LeopoldstadtXXXX
Lori commentary: I saw Leopoldstadt and I have mixed feelings about it. Everyone else seemed to love it, though.

Best Revival of a Musical

NYTimes
Jesse Green
TheaterManiaYahoo
Robert Hofler
Lori
Into the Woods
Camelot
ParadeXX
Sweeney ToddXX
Lori commentary: Camelot isn’t supposed to be great. It’s a tossup between Parade & Sweeney.

Best Revival of a Play

NYTimes
Jesse Green
TheaterManiaYahoo
Robert Hofler
Lori
The Piano Lesson
A Doll’s HouseXXXX
The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window
Topdog/UnderdogX
Lori commentary: Joining the bandwagon on this one.

The Acting Categories

Best Leading Actor in a Musical

NYTimes
Jesse Green
TheaterManiaYahoo
Robert Hofler
Lori
Christian Borle, Some Like it Hot
J. Harrison Ghee, Some Like it HotXXX
Josh Groban, Sweeney ToddX
Brian D’Arcy James, Into the Woods
Ben Platt, Parade
Colton Ryan, New York, New York
Lori commentary: Love Christian Borle, Josh Groban & Ben Platt, but J. Harrison Ghee’s genderqueer performance has been getting a lot of buzz.

Best Leading Actress in a Musical

NYTimes
Jesse Green
TheaterManiaYahoo
Robert Hofler
Lori
Annaleigh Ashford, Sweeney ToddXX
Sara Bareilles, Into the Woods
Victoria Clark, Kimberly AkimboXXX
Lorna Courtney, & Juliet
Micaela Diamond, Parade
Lori commentary: I’m throwing Annaleigh Ashford a vote because I loved her in Legally Blonde in 2007. I’d also be very happy with a Micaela Diamond win.

Best Leading Actor in a Play

NYTimes
Jesse Green
TheaterManiaYahoo
Robert Hofler
Lori
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Topdog/Underdog
Corey Hawkins, Topdog/Underdog
Sean Hayes, Good Night, OscarXX
Stephen McKinley Henderson, Between Riverside and CrazyX
Wendell Pierce, Death of a SalesmanX
Lori commentary: For fun, I’m throwing in a vote for Between Riverside and Crazy show because I heard his performance was amazing, but likely not seen by enough voters. Sleeper pick!

Best Leading Actress in a Play

NYTimes
Jesse Green
TheaterManiaYahoo
Robert Hofler
Lori
Jessica Chastain, A Doll’s House
Jodie Comer, Prima FacieXXXX
Jessica Hecht,
Summer, 1976
Audra McDonald,
Ohio State Murders
Lori commentary: I saw Audra McDonald in Ohio State Murders, and while I didn’t love the show (it’s quite heavy), she was spectacular..but this one seems to be a lock. When Jodie Comer’s understudy goes on in this one-woman show, tickets are refunded and the performance becomes free.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

NYTimes
Jesse Green
TheaterManiaYahoo
Robert Hofler
Lori
Kevin Cahoon, Shucked
Justin Coolen, Kimberly Akimbo
Kevin Del Aguila, Some Like it Hot
Jordan Donica, Camelot
Alex Newell, ShuckedXXXX
Lori commentary: Loved Alex Newell in Once on This Island. Alex has a big, belty voice that is Tony award worthy.

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

NYTimes
Jesse Green
TheaterManiaYahoo
Robert Hofler
Lori
Julia Lester, Into the WoodsX
Ruthie Ann Miles, Sweeney Todd
Bonnie Milligan, Kimberly AkimboXXX
NaTasha Yvette Williams, Some Like it Hot
Betsy Wolfe, & Juliet
Lori commentary: Bonnie Milligan was well known in the theatre community long before her 2018 Broadway debut as one of those performers that deserved to be on Broadway but hadn’t made it yet. She definitely has made it now, and she’ll likely win this award, but I’m throwing my vote to Julia Lester because I love her.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

NYTimes
Jesse Green
TheaterManiaYahoo
Robert Hofler
Lori
Jordan E. Cooper, Ain’t No Mo’
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano LessonX
Arian Moayed, A Doll’s House
Brandon Uranowitz, LeopoldstadtXX
David Zayas, Cost of LivingX
Lori commentary: I thought Brandon Uranowitz was great in Leopoldstadt, so I threw him my vote. However, mainstream celebrities always do well, so maybe Snakes on a Plane’s Samuel L. Jackson may take it.

Best Featured Actress in a Play

NYTimes
Jesse Green
TheaterManiaYahoo
Robert Hofler
Lori
Nikki Crawford, Fat Ham
Crystal Lucas-Perry, Ain’t No Mo’
Miriam Silverman, The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s WindowXXXX
Katy Sullivan, Cost of LivingX
Kara Young, Cost of Living
Lori commentary: The critic consensus online seems to be that Katy Sullivan deserves recognition but Miriam Silverman’s (also amazing) performance was more high-profile, so she’ll likely win.

Best Direction

Best Direction of a Musical

NYTimes
Jesse Green
TheaterManiaYahoo
Robert Hofler
Lori
Michael Arden, ParadeXXX
Lear deBessonet, Into the Woods
Casey Nicholaw, Some Like it HotX
Jack O’Brien, Shucked
Jessica Stone, Kimberly Akimbo
Lori commentary: I love Michael Arden as a director and an actor. Let’s throw him a parade!

Best Direction of a Play

NYTimes
Jesse Green
TheaterManiaYahoo
Robert Hofler
Lori
Saheem Ali, Fat Ham
Jo Bonney, Cost of Living
Jamie Lloyd, A Doll’s House
Patrick Marber, LeopoldstadtXXX
Stevie Walker-Webb, Ain’t No Mo’
Max Webster, Life of PiX
Lori commentary: Look…I know Leopoldstadt is a lock. But I didn’t love it. I’m sorry. I’m giving my vote to Life of Pi, because my friend Mar loved it and she has great opinions.

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